Tuesday, June 29, 2010

World Cup 2010 Quarter-Final Predictions

Calamity! Disaster! I admit, only getting half the teams through the round is no great shake, especially when I think that simply betting the favourite (as per FIFA ranking) would have got you 100%.

I admit to being in a bit of a whirl as to who to pick going going forward. In the past round, I might have been blinded to much by personal preferences. For example, my heart really wanted Ghana to go forward so much that I thought it made me unable to evaluate them fairly, causing me to pick the US instead. With Uruguay, things went the other way. My dislike of Uruguayan officials, stemming from the South Korea v. Italy match fiasco of 2002, carried over (unfairly) to the team. Note to England fans: how you liking Uruguayan officials after that non-call goal?

So, to make picks this round, I've reviewed some of my earlier rationale:

Uruguay v. Ghana - my heart is all Ghana in this one, but Ghana doesn't seem to have anyone to match Forlan and Suarez, who are playing like stone killers. Still, Ghana has shown the capacity to rise to the occasion - they'll need to cut off the supply to Forlan and Suarez by really pressing in the midfield. Ghana's quick down the flanks and maybe they could be the first to test Uruguay's still unproven defense. Uruguay (sorry Ghana, but I'm still rooting for you)

Argentina v. Germany - It would be very odd indeed for this to be a low scoring game. The Germans looked extremely composed in the game against England, laying to rest my doubts that perhaps the nerves of the younger team members might play a role. Still, Germany has proven that they can, at times at least, be confused. Argentina will have to hope that their high pressure attack will cause such a momentary break. Argentina.

Netherlands v. Brazil - I don't think the Dutch have ever beaten Brazil. I don't think the Netherlands is the better team. In fact, I don't even think the Dutch have a player currently firing at the level of Brazil's Luis Fabiano. Fabiano is on pace to be a contender for the Golden Boot. What the Dutch have however, is Arjen Robben, easily the tournament's most intense player. If the game is still scoreless at half-time I wouldn't be surprised to hear Robben threatening and intimidating the rest of the team and then coming out in the second half and carrying them on his shoulders to victory. If Brazil can score early, I think it's over. Netherlands.

Spain v. Paraguay. Frankly, while I reluctantly predicted Paraguay would make it into the second round (even suggesting they might come in first), their play against Japan was as dismal as I anticipated and they were just a crossbar away from losing in regulation time, let alone penalty kicks. On the otherhand, no team celebrated beating their second-round opponent as much as Spain did against Portugal, because Spain is battling not just all the other teams in the tournament, but also the monkey paw of being defending European Champions. Portugal was the toughest competition they were going to face in their end of the bracket. Having already lost once to a much lower-ranked opponent, I can't believe they'd do it again. Spain.