Evening Kino

Watching:

When what I really want to enjoy as I try to make my summer plans, is the introspection and beautiful cinematography offered by this:

World Cup 2010 Quarter-Final Predictions

Calamity! Disaster! I admit, only getting half the teams through the round is no great shake, especially when I think that simply betting the favourite (as per FIFA ranking) would have got you 100%.

I admit to being in a bit of a whirl as to who to pick going going forward. In the past round, I might have been blinded to much by personal preferences. For example, my heart really wanted Ghana to go forward so much that I thought it made me unable to evaluate them fairly, causing me to pick the US instead. With Uruguay, things went the other way. My dislike of Uruguayan officials, stemming from the South Korea v. Italy match fiasco of 2002, carried over (unfairly) to the team. Note to England fans: how you liking Uruguayan officials after that non-call goal?

So, to make picks this round, I've reviewed some of my earlier rationale:

Uruguay v. Ghana - my heart is all Ghana in this one, but Ghana doesn't seem to have anyone to match Forlan and Suarez, who are playing like stone killers. Still, Ghana has shown the capacity to rise to the occasion - they'll need to cut off the supply to Forlan and Suarez by really pressing in the midfield. Ghana's quick down the flanks and maybe they could be the first to test Uruguay's still unproven defense. Uruguay (sorry Ghana, but I'm still rooting for you)

Argentina v. Germany - It would be very odd indeed for this to be a low scoring game. The Germans looked extremely composed in the game against England, laying to rest my doubts that perhaps the nerves of the younger team members might play a role. Still, Germany has proven that they can, at times at least, be confused. Argentina will have to hope that their high pressure attack will cause such a momentary break. Argentina.

Netherlands v. Brazil - I don't think the Dutch have ever beaten Brazil. I don't think the Netherlands is the better team. In fact, I don't even think the Dutch have a player currently firing at the level of Brazil's Luis Fabiano. Fabiano is on pace to be a contender for the Golden Boot. What the Dutch have however, is Arjen Robben, easily the tournament's most intense player. If the game is still scoreless at half-time I wouldn't be surprised to hear Robben threatening and intimidating the rest of the team and then coming out in the second half and carrying them on his shoulders to victory. If Brazil can score early, I think it's over. Netherlands.

Spain v. Paraguay. Frankly, while I reluctantly predicted Paraguay would make it into the second round (even suggesting they might come in first), their play against Japan was as dismal as I anticipated and they were just a crossbar away from losing in regulation time, let alone penalty kicks. On the otherhand, no team celebrated beating their second-round opponent as much as Spain did against Portugal, because Spain is battling not just all the other teams in the tournament, but also the monkey paw of being defending European Champions. Portugal was the toughest competition they were going to face in their end of the bracket. Having already lost once to a much lower-ranked opponent, I can't believe they'd do it again. Spain.

Song of the Day: Straight to Hell

To find out more about the War Child benefit album, you can click here or for the Canadian group click here.

Clash version below.

Some real thoughts on the G20 protests

Protests are funny things and it's easy to sit on the sidelines and criticize how they unfold. It gets easier as one gets older, but I must admit that I am disillusioned with mass protest as any form of political dialogue.

In most cases, I think this is because protest organizers fail to integrate protests into a larger political strategy. It's easy for politicians to discount protests that involve thousands, even tens of thousands of people, when voter turnout levels are still low. Any protests aimed at political change need to be tied clearly to

In 1993 I helped organize one of the largest mass protests in Alberta history. Almost 8,000 high school students cut class to demonstrate against proposed budget cuts. Seeing thousands of students out on the streets was a very happy, albeit extremely short-lived, moment. Did things quickly spiral out of the control of the "central organizing committee"? Yes. Did the media hand-pick "student leaders" to interview? Yes. Did our message get articulated clearly in the media? Not at all. Were we represented in the press by a football player? Yes. Am I bitter? Not nearly as much now as I was then.

Protests are inherently Romantic things, with dreams of strolling down the streets, arm in arm, singing Pete Seeger songs, etc. But part of the mistake we made, and it's an easy one to make, is believing that everyone in the crowd is there for the same reason, and that those reasons align with yours. Crowds take on a life of their own and it's pretty arrogant to think that you can control what's going to happen, which paradoxically, is part of the problem. I think you should only protest when you have a reasonable chance of having your message or intent being communicated clearly. But if the sole purpose of the protest is just to show everyone else how angry you are, isn't that just vanity on the part of the protesters?

Again, a protest ought to be a part of a larger strategy, and part of the work of protesting is educating everyone on what the next step is, before it actually happens. Everyone needs to know that regardless of the actual outcome, tomorrow everyone is going to do X, whether it's join a political party, make YouTube statements, or plant a bunch of daisies. I wonder if part of the problem with these G8/G20 protests is that too many of the participants have already given up on the electoral process. If that's the case, then there's really no point in protesting anymore, is there? Isn't it time to do something else?

We know, since the Chicago 1968 riots and countless released FBI files, that security forces routinely plant double agents that act as instigators. Certainly, in the history of popular revolts there's a time and a place for violence, but it all needs to be part of the strategy. If the strategy is just to raise awareness, then protesting is a good tactic and violence doesn't have any role to play, since it distracts from the overall message. If the purpose is actually to prevent something from happening, like the G20, then quite frankly, a protest is the wrong tactic to use. If you're angry and you feel the electoral system has failed you, and tens of thousands of people in the street agree with you, then it's time for something other than a simple protest to get your message across.

Frankly, I'm tired of protesting and protests. I tired of the pointless violence that plays out like a cheap novel.

Initial Thoughts on G20 Violence in Toronto

Rioting—the unbeatable high
Adrenalin shoots your nerves to the sky
Everyone knows this town is gonna blow
And it's all gonna blow right now….

Now you can smash all the windows that you want
All you really need are some friends and a rock
Throwing a brick never felt so damn good
Smash more glass
Scream with a laugh
And wallow with the crowds
Watch them kicking peoples' ass

But you get to the place
Where the real slavedrivers live
It's walled off by the riot squad
Aiming guns right at your head
So you turn right around
And play right into their hands
And set your own neighbourhood
Burning to the ground instead

Chorus
Riot—the unbeatable high
Riot—shoots your nerves to the sky
Riot—playing into their hands
Tomorrow you're homeless
Tonight it's a blast

Get your kicks in quick
They're callin' the national guard
Now could be your only chance
To torch a police car

Climb the roof, kick the siren in
And jump and yelp for joy
Quickly—dive back in the crowd
Slip away, now don't get caught

Let's loot the spiffy hi-fi store
Grab as much as you can hold
Pray your full arms don't fall off
Here comes the owner with a gun

Chorus

The barricades spring up from nowhere
Cops in helmets line the lines
Shotguns prod into your bellies
The trigger fingers want an excuse
Now

The raging mob has lost its nerve
There's more of us but who goes first
No one dares to cross the line
The cops know that they've won

It's all over but not quite
The pigs have just begun to fight
They club your heads, kick your teeth
Police can riot all that they please

Chorus

Tomorrow you're homeless
Tonight it's a blast

Onward! Round Two Beckons!

Italian coaches are infamous for calling tournaments like the World Cup and the UEFA Champions League "two tournaments in one." As Carlo Ancelotti once explained, the first round is all about winning points, the second round is about winning games. In Italian minds, the second phase, which starts tomorrow, is the real tournament. Perhaps this why the Azzurri are sitting at home right now...

Again, for those keeping score at home, my own predictions for Round Two have come in at 69% while the FIFA rankings are also running at 69%.

Round Two Match-Ups And Predictions

Uruguay v. South Korea - One of the few cases where I predicted neither of teams. Given that Uruguay had South Africa and France in their pool, it's hard to get an accurate assessment of where they're at, but Diego Forlan is playing extremely well. Still, South Korea is playing a well-disciplined game that Uruguay will have difficulty exploiting. Korea.

USA v. Ghana - I think just about everyone not living in the USA wants to see Ghana advance, if only for an African team to go deep in the tournament. Ghana should give the Americans plenty of trouble, but this could be the chance Team USA has been waiting to show the rest of the world they're taking soccer seriously. USA

Argentina v. Mexico - Diego Maradona fielded four strikers in the match against Greece, and kept the Greeks, already a defense heavy team, bottled up for the better part of an hour. While Mexico is more likely to provide a stronger offensive threat, I don't think their defense is anywhere near the calibre of Greece. Argentina

England v. Germany - It's hard to decide which game will draw more viewers, this one or Spain v. Portugal. On paper, I think Germany has been playing better than England and ought to carry the day, but the psychological pressure of this particular match will be huge and the older, more experienced English players will prevail. England

Netherlands v. Slovakia - Arjen Robben is the kind of player that Italy lacked in their own game against Slovakia and ought to be able to help the Dutch dictate the pace of the game. While the Dutch have proven that they can be rattled and drawn into some technical fouls in the past, they should still prove more than a match for Slovakia. The only real question is whether they remain calm enough to keep enough of their players going forward. Netherlands

Brazil v. Chile - Chile have proven to be surprisingly resilient and stingy, even in their game against Spain. However, I think that match cost Chile too much in terms of yellow and red cards for the team to present much of a threat to a Brazil team that has admittedly only shown flashes of brilliance this World Cup. Regardless, it should still be enough to see Brazil through. Brazil

Paraguay v. Japan - Who knows? The Japanese are playing exciting, aggressive soccer and it would be fantastic to see them through. Other teams have admitted to being bewildered by the Japanese disregard for defense, so maybe it will surprise Paraguay too. Japan

Spain v. Portugal - This is the only match-up I called correctly. I stand by what I said. Portugal.

And yes, we're still on pace for a Brazil v. Argentina final.

Italy Loses and I Feel OK

It is surprising to me how comfortable I was with Italy's loss this morning. Yes, I was angry at the two disallowed goals, and the goal scored against them in the New Zealand game. Sure, there was a part of me that wished the referee had given the Slovakian goalie a yellow card instead of a just a caution, so that later in the game, after he had punched the Italian forward in the face, he would have been sent off, leaving Slovakia down to ten men and with their back-up goalie in net.

But, I knew going into this that Italy was highly unlikely to repeat as World Cup Champions and I knew that they would have to lose at some point. I think knowing that made a lot of their lacklustre play in the first round tolerable, as if I was participating in some kind of four-year hangover (making it to the 2008 European Championship Finals was kind of like dragging the party on through breakfast) but in that bright South African light we finally realized just how old everyone was; that everything had truly run its course.

The last fifteen minutes of the game was agonizingly wonderful. Italy presented the form and emotion that I often curse them for hiding. Yes, the one linesman, on Italy's right flank, is my scapegoat for the two disallowed goals, continuing my criticism of the linesmen at 2010. Regardless though, as always, Italy fell into the hole they dug, and despite it all, I'll look forward to seeing them in 2012.

Music Update: Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings

A lot of people have been chatting up the new Sharon Jones and the Dap-Kings album, I Learned The Hard Way. Metacritic says it's reached a level of universal acclaim. One of my friends stated that seeing Sharon Jones in concert was like seeing James Brown at the height of his powers. It's a daunting build up for any album.

But Jones and the Dap-Kings are smooth. There's nary a blip on the album filled with quintessential rhythm & blues riffs and horns zooming in and out at all the right moments, all filled with Sharon Jones' wonderful voice. My only complaint is that the songs are perhaps too good, too polished. Listening to the album from start to finish, it becomes hard to tell one song from another, they all share the same mid-tempo pacing (but then again, who listens to whole albums anymore anyways? Things sound great when mixed in with half a dozen other records to spice up the tempo).

Here they are, live in Vancouver, at the show that prompted the James Brown comment:

Song of the Day: Buck 65, "Who By Fire"

Buck 65 covers Leonard Cohen's "Who By Fire" on his latest EP, "The Lost Tapes".

Stunning.

The Fall of France

Ok, so I won't make any WWII jokes, because clearly the French loss yesterday marks the absolute collapse of French Football. Reading the reaction to the team's implosion through the French Press has been fascinating. On some levels, it's similar to what Canada went through when the men's hockey team underperformed at the 2006 Olympics - only ten times worse, since a) Canada at least won a match, b) no one got sent home, and c) the French have a peculiar love affair with drama. French media are already calling it "L'affaire Anelka", as if it were on par as the sordid Dreyfus Affair, but then again, this one has traitors too.

All the hoopla surrounding France did make me yearn for some kind of dramatic comeback wherein the team would find their missing esprit de corps in their must win final game of the round robin and then go on to reach the finals. Too bad, like the French, I'm a romantic at heart and love sporting events with good narrative arcs. I can always root for the English, I suppose.

For those of you keeping score at home, my predictions for the round are currently sitting at 50%. I predicted that France, Mexico, Argentina, and Nigeria would all advance. While the French were just miserable, Nigeria tried to make through by playing in what has arguably been one of the tournament's best games so far. Their match against South Korea found both teams needing to take something away; Nigeria needing a win, S. Korea needing at least a tie, and resulted in lots of end-to-end play, drama, penalty kicks, and near misses.

First Anniversary!

It's our anniversary! I'm happy to announce that What Sister Ray Said is officially one year old and in between all of these World Cup matches we found a few moments to celebrate the occasion with some friends.

I wanted to take a moment this morning, before things got all wrapped up in Father's Day, Italy's game against New Zealand, and then the titanic clash of Brazil and Cote d'Ivoire, to say thank-you to all of you who have ever stopped by to check us out or leave a comment. I might joke about the What Sister Ray Said audience numbering in the dozens, but Google Analytics tells me that there's actually over 800 of you, and while that number is going to land us in Techcrunch or Huffington Post territory, it has already resulted in accumulating half the site visits of The Daily Wenzel in just a quarter of the time. Since The Daily Wenzel is my only real yardstick, I feel really good about what we've accomplished here, and so again, thank-you everyone.

Speaking of The Daily Wenzel, I also wanted to take a moment to remember and say thank-you to everyone who was ever involved in that project, especially since it now appears to be taking on some kind of mythic status. Yes, we should have done more, and more things should have been done better, but man it was fun.

I'd love to hear any of your favourite posts from the last year, or memories of The Daily Wenzel.

If you have a moment, why don't you check out our post from last Father's Day?

Pele, Maradona, and Zidane walk into a bar...

(This comes my way via C.T.Overdrive.ca)

Pele, Maradona and Zidane walk into a bar (no seriously) and a Lego soccer game breaks out?

Bonus: Why the big teams do so bad

Bonus thoughts - Why are the big teams doing so poorly? Granted, the reasons are many, but the Jubalani ball, so often criticized in the past few days, is clearly one of them. However, the real culprit is over-training. Elite level athletes practice routine manouvers for hundreds of hours, repeating them with a degree of consistency that is hard to believe. Below is a short clip of the legendary Clarence Seedorf fooling around with the ball and discussing how it is different from other balls. The long and short of things is that it's lighter and appears to spin more, requiring players to hit it both softer, and at a blunter angle to reduce spin. He also recommends that players alter their aim, all of which are skills that players have ingrained to the point of reflex, and now requires a fraction of a second to think about, often the difference between hitting it a goal or not.

The irony, is that less skilled players often have to spend more time up front considering all of these things that come unconsciously to the elite level players, meaning they are less likely to be as affected by the differences in the ball. Having said that, it's reasonable to expect that the better players are going to have this all figured after a few games.

Watch Clarence Seedorf here.

FIFA World Cup Turned Upside Down

The last 36 hours have seen an impressive array of upsets at the World Cup of Soccer in South Africa, in which three of soccer's biggest superpowers failed to take advantage of all their supposed skills and I've learned several important things about myself.

First, yesterday, France fell 2-0 to Mexico as the French forwards failed to muster any credible opportunities in front of the Mexican net. The French defense meanwhile got caught by a streaking Mexican attacker as they tried to play the offside trap, then gave up a penalty kick inside the forty yard box to give Mexico it's second goal. The Internet immediately erupted in howls of anguish at the prospect of France repeating their dismal performance at the 2002 World Cup where they failed to score even a single goal. Lesson: I apparently cared very much about France and I imagine that it would be nice to have a team to cheer for that isn't Italy, since I feel compelled to cheer on the azzurri, but am often aghast at their defensive strategies, but the next time I'm picking sentimental favourites, why can't I choose a winning team?

Things did not get any better this morning, as the Germans faced off against Serbia, in what arguably should have been a lot closer than the thumping Germany gave Australia, but perhaps the 4-0 victory made the Germans overconfident. Clearly though, the Spanish referee played his own role, earning the current tournament lead for most cards given out in a single match. After booking Miroslav Klose early for a questionable tackle, he gave Klose a second yellow for an obvious offense, earning the prolific goal-scorer a sending off. Serbia capitalized within a minute, and the Germans never really got organized after going down to ten men. Lesson: I hate watching bad officials ruin games, but I discovered that I actually love watching Germany lose. I guess it's all those 1982 World Cup reruns I grew up on...

The Americans perhaps fared the kindest, having eked out a lucky point against England, their luck appeared to have deserted them against Slovenia, going down early 2-0 but, led by Landon Donovan, battled back to tie the game and earn another point.

For England however, there is only despair. After literally letting their first game against the USA slip through their fingers and into a tie, spectators were treated to a bewildered England midfield failing to connect on any crosses. I don't know who was more surprised by the English performance, England coach Fabio Capello, or Algerian coach Rabah Saadane. This group, like Germany's, is going to be a real barnburner on the last day, as everything is now up for grabs. Lesson: If Italy turned in a performance like England, France, or Germany, I'd probably be tearing my hair out right now, but being defending champions has an oddly calming effect. It's unreasonable to expect Italy to repeat, so I feel no pressure. It's all kinda fun now.

Best World Cup Soccer Song

Switzerland's shocking victory over Spain yesterday reminded me of Cameroon's similarly amazing downing of Argentina in 1990. Led by the dancing 38 year old Roger Milla, Cameroon defeated the defending World Cup champs on the opening day of the competition and advanced all the way to the quarter-finals where they lost to England.

The 1990 World Cup also marked the first appearance of the Republic of Ireland, and they too would advance to the quarters to face Italy, in a match that divided my household down parental lines. Although Ireland would eventually lose the game, they won my heart, and this song, written by the Pogues and the Dubliners, and one of the best World Cup soccer songs, ever.

Reflections of the First Week of the World Cup

So the first week of round robin play concluded today and what have we learned? Firstly, that the Japanese appear to be for real. Their unexpected domination of Cameroon has led me to question my thoughts on Group E. The Dutch looked a little disorganized in their match against Denmark (most likely due to the absence of Arjen Robben) and I think it is reasonably to suspect that the Japanese will give them much trouble as well. A team in any group generally faces three types of games: the tough game against a more talented team that they need to try and tie at least, for Cameroon, this would be the game against the Dutch, then there's the game against a similarly matched opponent that they need to win, i.e. Denmark, and finally there's the game they need to win against a technically weaker opponent that will result in 7 points and safely securing their passage into the next round. For Cameroon, this "easy" game was against Japan, and while it is still possible to qualify with 6 points, Cameroon faces the uphill task of having to beat both Holland and Denmark.

The other big surprises involve New Zealand's last minute goal against Slovakia, helping to insure that Italy will be still have a chance to qualify, and for many, Switzerland's stunning victory over Spain, though it only served to confirm my faith in Hitzfeld's coaching.

Sadly, it also seems that today saw the elimination of South Africa, the first hosts to fail to advance into the second round, possibly for the first time ever. While it is possible for South Africa to finish tied for first place, it seems highly unlikely that they will still go through. IF France beats Mexico, AND Mexico beats Uruguay, AND South Africa beats France, then all four teams will wind up with 4 points. In the case of time, officials look at who won the head to head match-ups, followed by point differential. If things remain tied at this point, they then advance whoever has scored more goals in the history of head-to-head competition between the two (or four) teams (For the record, if things are still tied, then the FIFA officials apparently draw lots).

Bridgeland during the World Cup

Welcome to Calgary's Bridgeland, where even the street boxes are set up to cheer for Italy!

Passages: Celebration of the Bow

Saturday morning I had the pleasure of joining a group of Calgarians in Douglasbank Park who had gathered as part of Passages, the City's celebration of 100 years of Water Management. Saturday's event, led by Alberta artist Peter von Tiesenhausen, saw us drop 100 small handcrafted wooden boats into the Bow River from the Higgins Bridge.

Each boat was filled with one of 100 soil samples taken by Tiesenhausen while on a journey to Calgary from the Bow River headwaters in Banff. Each sample yielded a different colour, and mine was a nice light brown, reminiscent of espresso crema. Since each boat is loaded with a GPS-tracker, it is theoretically possible to follow each boat along the Bow and into the South Saskatchewan River, on to Manitoba, and ultimately (possibly) out to the Hudson's Bay, making it all a kind of elaborate game of Poohsticks. For those of you keeping score at home, my boat is #50, while one of my colleagues was #26. We're going to check in on our boats in September to see who owes who a cup of coffee.

The City of Calgary has quite a few events scheduled over the summer as part of their Celebration of the Bow series, and I'm looking forward to the floating of lanterns from Edworthy Park to Pearce Estate Park during the evening of August 21 since it will take place within walking distance of my house.

Quick Thanks

I don't know if FFWD's Best of Calgary results come out tomorrow or not, but since the survey discriminates against my legion of Asian spambot fans and my own mother is honest enough to have only voted once, I wanted to thank everyone who took the time to vote What Sister Ray Said for Best Blog (even if it doesn't). More importantly, I wanted to thank anyone who participated in the FFWD poll in any capacity. Calgary's got a lot of great (and not so great) things going for it, but we all ought to point them out every so often.

World Cup 2010 Predictions, Pt.2

Round Two
France v. Greece (or Nigeria)
Unless France is firing on all cylinders, Nigeria could prove a handful, but Greece is unlikely to have the firepower necessary to pull of the upset. Fifa says: France Argentina v. Uruguay (or South Africa) Unless Argentina coach Diego Maradona allows himself to become a sideshow, Argentina should roll through this match regardless of who they play from Group A. Fifa says: Argentina England v. Ghana
A fast-paced Ghana, playing with plenty of confidence, could give England plenty of trouble - a sturdy Australia clogging up the middle and waiting for the counter-attack, not so much. Should Serbia hold, England should still prevail. Fifa says: England.

Netherlands v. Paraguay
The Dutch.

Italy v. Cameroon
This one makes me nervous, because I can't be certain that Italy can hold off Samuel Eto'o long enough to score two goals or hold onto their win. Eto'o plays in Italy and so should have plenty of experience unlocking an Italian defense. My heart says Italy, my brain says Cameroon. Fifa says: Italy

Germany v. USA
The US upset Spain last summer in a game that I'm sure the Germans will have watched numerous times and would do well not to underestimate the Americans. It could be tough, but should advance.

Spain v. Portugal (or Cote d'Ivoire)
This will probably be the most anticipated match of the round, regardless of who Spain have to play, heck it might even be Brazil. All sides are capable of playing attractive flowing football with an attacking focus (except maybe North Korea, who I won't pretend to understand anything about). Spain is easily the best team in Europe, but no team in history as ever one the European Championship and gone on to win the World Cup. Sorry Spain, but your journey has to end somewhere, and Portugal is as good a place as any. Fifa says: Spain, but so does Sports Illustrated, and that's the kiss of death. If Spain play Cote d'Ivoire then they should manage to win.

Brazil v. Switzerland (I almost forgot)
um, Brazil.

Round Three

France v. England
Seriously! It'd be epic! But who'd win? Who cares! For no other reason than Sports Illustrated is picking England to go to the final, I'll pick France, although, a lot of things have to be going right for France to have made it this far, and that might just give them the edge. Fifa says: England.

Netherlands v. Brazil
Brazil has been criticized a lot lately for it's more defensive tactics and the Dutch will really put it to the test. History suggests that it's easier to win the World Cup once you've already won it than it is to win it for the first time, so I'll say Brazil.

Argentina v. Germany
This is where we'll find out just how good is the rest of the Argentinian team. If Diego Maradona has gotten his team to place where they can truly play behind Lionel Messi, then they should be able to handle the Germans. Look for Germany to out-coach Argentina and for the match to be highly technical. I believe in Messi, so I believe in Argentina. Fifa says: Germany.

Italy (or Cameroon) v. Portugal (or Spain)
Again, history suggests that it is easier to win back-to-back World Cups than it is to win a first one. If Italy advances past Cameroon, then they should be able to take Portugal as well. Portugal is capable of fielding a more complete team than Cameroon, though the Eto'o v. Ronaldo match up is tantalizing. As is the slim possibility of a third round all Africa match guaranteeing an African team in the semi-final should Cote d'Ivoire somehow beat Spain. However, the Spanish defense is no stranger to Samuel Eto'o and should be able to neutralize him. Fifa says: Portugal (or Spain)

Semi-Finals

France v. Brazil
This would be a 1998 Finals rematch, as well as the 2006 semi-finals rematch. France has won both of them and you have to think their luck will run out. Let's say Brazil. Fifa says: Brazil

Italy v. Argentina
Both of these teams have six World Cups between them. Argentina will attack. Italy will defend. In my dreams Italy scores first and then miraculously scores again as if Jose Mourinho was behind the bench. Most likely, Argentina will score first and Italy will be pressed to try and score on their quick counter-attack, ensuring a highly exciting game. It also promises to be highly entertaining should Cameroon, Portugal, or Spain make it past Italy, however, in that case Argentina has "statistics" (and Lionel Messi) on their side.

Final
Brazil v. Argentina (or Cameroon, Portugal, or Spain)
Please let anyone other than Brazil win this. Maybe even Italy? It could happen, but I'm going with Argentina and will suggest that the only Brazil is going to win is if they have to play Spain (who we've already established have been marked by the Kiss of Death, twice).

*For the record, I am comfortable writing that Italy will not be in the finals, since I find it unreasonable to believe that they would do it twice in a row (even though there's that bit about it being easier to win back-to-back cups, it's just for show really - but that's not to say I wouldn't be horribly miserable if they do lose).

World Cup 2010 Predictions

Wherein I make my bold predictions as to how this year's World Cup of Soccer competition will unfold. A word of caution, I am genetically programmed to believe that Italy will win it all. This does have a tendency to could my judgement, so I have provided not one, but three predictions for the World Cup: the first premised on Italy winning everything, the second relying on FIFA rankings, and the third based on a modicum of analysis, statistical trends, and one or two pluckings of things out of random personal orifices.

First Round

Group A (South Africa, France, Mexico, Uruguay)

Fifa Says: France and Uruguay.

I say: France and Mexico.

Outlier: No host nation has ever failed to advance, so look for South Africa to somehow gain a surprise win over France or Mexico, a draw against the other and Uruguay as well. Yes, France stumbled into the World Cup on a handball goal, but hopefully that has shamed them into playing better. Mexico is the real question mark here as their FIFA Ranking benefits from their legendary home record in Azteca Stadium. That record will might not work for them in South Africa, so I would not be surprised to see them upended by the hosts or Uruguay.

Group B (Argentina, Nigeria, Greece, Korea)

Fifa Says: Argentina, Greece

I Say: Argentina, Nigeria

Outliers: Pele once claimed that an African team would claim the World Cup before the end of the last century. Now overdue, few World Cups have seen so many African teams playing as strongly internationally as 2010. Almost every team from Africa has a good chance of making it into the second round. For the record, Argentina is perhaps my most favoured team not named Italy to win it all.

Group C (England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia)

Fifa Says: England, USA

I Say: England, USA

Outliers: Less than 130 ranking points separate the bottom three teams in this club, one of the narrowest margins. England is 8, USA 14, Slovenia 25, and Algeria 30. England ought to go through in some capacity, but any stutter by one of the others could see them going home early. Again, theoretically, Algeria has as good a chance as anyone else if they can keep the scores low and eke out two draws.

Group D (Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana)

Fifa Says: Germany, Serbia

I Say: Germany, Ghana

Outliers: Expect Serbia to gear up for the game against Germany, but it's questionable which team will show up against Australia and Ghana. A surprise loss or draw to Serbia could see Ghana sneaking by.

Group E (Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon)

Fifa Says: Netherlands, Cameroon

I Say: Netherlands, Cameroon

Outliers: None. In the past, African players have been accused of playing for exposure, but under the leadership of Samuel Eto'o, look for that tendency to end. While the Dutch are consistent World Cup performers and my favourite European team not named Italy to win, Cameroon is my favourite African team.

Group F (Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovenia)

Fifa Says: Italy, Paraguay

I Say: Italy, Paraguay

Outliers: None, but I can't guarantee that Italy will finish first overall and I'll admit I had to check twice to make sure that I really saw New Zealand on that list.

Group G (Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, North Korea, Portugal)

Fifa Says: Brazil, Portugal

I Say: Brazil, Portugal

Outliers: Lots of commentators are hyping North Korea as some kind of wild card here. I think I heard one sports reporter actually reference the "bamboo curtain" a la Blades of Glory. Up until last week I had Cote d'Ivoire slipping past Portgual based on the fact that Didier Drogba and company had performed better and under more pressure than the Ronaldo and his teamates who have a tendency to crack under pressure. However, reports from last week about Drogba breaking his arm have me in real doubts as to his effectiveness (there are claims that his arm was surgically repaired and he might be healthy enough to play their June 15th debut)

Group H (Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile)

Fifa Says: Spain, Chile

I Say: Spain, Switzerland

Outliers: Chile and Switzerland are separated by 22 ranking points, one of the smallest differences of the tournement. Switzerland were surprise over-performers at Euro 2008, they are now joined by the legendary Ottmar Hitzfeld, coach of Champions League winning Dortmund and Bayern Munich teams. His steely guidance has already seen the Swiss start advancing up the rankings.

Shelfari, Should I Read This Book?

I love this question. It makes me chuckle because everytime, the answer is invariably "yes" - regardless of the book. It's all about how you answer a "should" question. Any question involving a "should" ought to be dealt with in terms of consequences. Will the outcome yield a positive, negative, or neutral outcome? Will I like it? Will I learn something? Will I get an idea for something? These are all positive outcomes. Not liking a book is more of neutral outcome, since I've still gained something from the experience and am not somehow lessened because of it. Even a bad book gives you the possibility of learning something from it or perhaps getting an idea for something better. Negative outcomes involve diminishing resources or possibilities for yourself and/or other people. Will reading this book stop me from getting into college? No. Will it bring harm to me, or someone I love? No. Negative outcomes may follow from the political or legal context of particular books (as in banned books).

Once you've identified all the probable outcomes, the next step is to weigh their severity and likelihood. If the potential for a positive outcome outweighs the potential for negative outcomes, then the answer to "Should I read this?" will be "Yes". When you say that someone should not read a particular book, you are saying that there is virtually no chance of them gaining anything from the experience.

A completely different question, and one that I struggle with all the time, is "Should I read this book right now?" For a lot of books, the answer to that question is "probably not".

A Greener Calgary?

A lot of people appear to be enjoying slamming the Peace Bridge, so much so that I would not be surprised to see it as one of the city's top trends in the Fast Forward Best of Calgary survey. What is most surprising is that most of the people critical of the bridge fail to put it in the context of a strategy of making Calgary a greener and more livable city by encouraging more foot traffic and less driving. Yes, the bridge is expensive (and far more expensive than anticipated), but have we looked at the environmental offset costs the bridge might bring? Over at the Calgary's Centre City blog, they ask the question of what a greener city might look like, and I'm pretty sure if we were to begin talking about it, we'd find more foot bridges and more pedestrians at the heart of it.

May Bookends

It's funny, we generally think of time as a series or continuum of linear events - it's the same conceptualization that we use for novels, but it's rare that we notice ourselves becoming aware of our time shifting from a period that we would characterize as part of the "body" of the novel and the developing of the various themes that would dominate the year, to that of the denouement and wrapping up. For me, May marked this transition. I woke up one morning and realized that I had only a few more weeks left before holidays. On my bookshelf were several books I had borrowed from colleagues who would be transferred after the holiday season and this is reflected in my reading choices as I rush to return some of these to their rightful owners.

It was interesting to read Michael Crichton's "found" novel Pirate Latitudes - apparently the entire manuscript was discovered in a drawer or something of his estate, most likely put away once he heard about Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean venture. Both storylines involve pirates sailing out of Port Royal and both feature morally ambivalent main characters. One of the fascinating things about reading such discovered manuscripts is that you can never be certain how "finished", or in what part of the editing process the work was sitting once the decision to shelf it occurred. As much as I enjoyed Pirate Latitudes and it's breezy action, supposedly based on true events, there were inevitably parts where I wondered if this was really the authorial decision that Crichton had come to, or if he had merely left it as a placeholder, with thoughts to come back and revise it later. I had similar thoughts while reading Graham Greene's The Tenth Man last summer, but at least Greene had the opportunity to revise before publishing (whether he did or not is different). Soon to be a major motion picture.

I'll say more about Gord Hill's thought-provoking The 500 Years of Resistance Comic Book, but if you have the chance to pick it up before Stampede, you should. Also, Ben Moor's book, based on his one-man play monologues were fun - if you have a chance to see him, you probably should.

Finally, Chomsky v. Foucault was highly engaging and, oddly humourous in places, mostly because I have a lot of preconceived notions about these two men and their ideas, and so reading about the interplay between them allowed me to imagine all sorts of subtext. Towards that end, while their discussions about the role that language and thought play in the development of political systems and free will can be approached in this work by a novice, it's much more entertaining to come at it with an appreciation of the two already in hand.

Books Read:

Ben Moor, More Trees to Climb (2010)

Noam Chomsky and Michel Foucault, The Chomsky-Foucault Debate on Human Nature (2006)

Michael Crichton, Pirate Latitudes (2009)

Gord Hill, The 500 Years of Resistance Comic Book (2010)

Currently reading

Doug Lemov, Teach Like A Champion (2010)

Nick Hornby, Slam! (2008)

Gerald Lee Gutek, Historical and Philosophical Foundations of Education: A Biographical Introduction (2004)

Books Acquired:

Gord Hill, The 500 Years of Resistance Comic Book (2010)

Nick Hornby, Juliet, Naked (2009)