So the first week of round robin play concluded today and what have we learned? Firstly, that the Japanese appear to be for real. Their unexpected domination of Cameroon has led me to question my thoughts on Group E. The Dutch looked a little disorganized in their match against Denmark (most likely due to the absence of Arjen Robben) and I think it is reasonably to suspect that the Japanese will give them much trouble as well. A team in any group generally faces three types of games: the tough game against a more talented team that they need to try and tie at least, for Cameroon, this would be the game against the Dutch, then there's the game against a similarly matched opponent that they need to win, i.e. Denmark, and finally there's the game they need to win against a technically weaker opponent that will result in 7 points and safely securing their passage into the next round. For Cameroon, this "easy" game was against Japan, and while it is still possible to qualify with 6 points, Cameroon faces the uphill task of having to beat both Holland and Denmark.
The other big surprises involve New Zealand's last minute goal against Slovakia, helping to insure that Italy will be still have a chance to qualify, and for many, Switzerland's stunning victory over Spain, though it only served to confirm my faith in Hitzfeld's coaching.
Sadly, it also seems that today saw the elimination of South Africa, the first hosts to fail to advance into the second round, possibly for the first time ever. While it is possible for South Africa to finish tied for first place, it seems highly unlikely that they will still go through. IF France beats Mexico, AND Mexico beats Uruguay, AND South Africa beats France, then all four teams will wind up with 4 points. In the case of time, officials look at who won the head to head match-ups, followed by point differential. If things remain tied at this point, they then advance whoever has scored more goals in the history of head-to-head competition between the two (or four) teams (For the record, if things are still tied, then the FIFA officials apparently draw lots).
