First Round
Group A (South Africa, France, Mexico, Uruguay)
Fifa Says: France and Uruguay.
I say: France and Mexico.
Outlier: No host nation has ever failed to advance, so look for South Africa to somehow gain a surprise win over France or Mexico, a draw against the other and Uruguay as well. Yes, France stumbled into the World Cup on a handball goal, but hopefully that has shamed them into playing better. Mexico is the real question mark here as their FIFA Ranking benefits from their legendary home record in Azteca Stadium. That record will might not work for them in South Africa, so I would not be surprised to see them upended by the hosts or Uruguay.
Group B (Argentina, Nigeria, Greece, Korea)
Fifa Says: Argentina, Greece
I Say: Argentina, Nigeria
Outliers: Pele once claimed that an African team would claim the World Cup before the end of the last century. Now overdue, few World Cups have seen so many African teams playing as strongly internationally as 2010. Almost every team from Africa has a good chance of making it into the second round. For the record, Argentina is perhaps my most favoured team not named Italy to win it all.
Group C (England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia)
Fifa Says: England, USA
I Say: England, USA
Outliers: Less than 130 ranking points separate the bottom three teams in this club, one of the narrowest margins. England is 8, USA 14, Slovenia 25, and Algeria 30. England ought to go through in some capacity, but any stutter by one of the others could see them going home early. Again, theoretically, Algeria has as good a chance as anyone else if they can keep the scores low and eke out two draws.
Group D (Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana)
Fifa Says: Germany, Serbia
I Say: Germany, Ghana
Outliers: Expect Serbia to gear up for the game against Germany, but it's questionable which team will show up against Australia and Ghana. A surprise loss or draw to Serbia could see Ghana sneaking by.
Group E (Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon)
Fifa Says: Netherlands, Cameroon
I Say: Netherlands, Cameroon
Outliers: None. In the past, African players have been accused of playing for exposure, but under the leadership of Samuel Eto'o, look for that tendency to end. While the Dutch are consistent World Cup performers and my favourite European team not named Italy to win, Cameroon is my favourite African team.
Group F (Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovenia)
Fifa Says: Italy, Paraguay
I Say: Italy, Paraguay
Outliers: None, but I can't guarantee that Italy will finish first overall and I'll admit I had to check twice to make sure that I really saw New Zealand on that list.
Group G (Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, North Korea, Portugal)
Fifa Says: Brazil, Portugal
I Say: Brazil, Portugal
Outliers: Lots of commentators are hyping North Korea as some kind of wild card here. I think I heard one sports reporter actually reference the "bamboo curtain" a la Blades of Glory. Up until last week I had Cote d'Ivoire slipping past Portgual based on the fact that Didier Drogba and company had performed better and under more pressure than the Ronaldo and his teamates who have a tendency to crack under pressure. However, reports from last week about Drogba breaking his arm have me in real doubts as to his effectiveness (there are claims that his arm was surgically repaired and he might be healthy enough to play their June 15th debut)
Group H (Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile)
Fifa Says: Spain, Chile
I Say: Spain, Switzerland
Outliers: Chile and Switzerland are separated by 22 ranking points, one of the smallest differences of the tournement. Switzerland were surprise over-performers at Euro 2008, they are now joined by the legendary Ottmar Hitzfeld, coach of Champions League winning Dortmund and Bayern Munich teams. His steely guidance has already seen the Swiss start advancing up the rankings.
