World Cup 2010 Semi-Final Predictions

It is on. I think the week following Canada Day in World Cup years is among one of my favourite years going. Between Wimbledon, the Tour de France, and the knock-out rounds of the World Cup, it's possible to lose oneself totally in sports. My predictions for the quarter-finals came in at 75%, with only Argentina's shocking, nay soul-crushing, defeat at the hands of Germany, coming in as an upset. Uruguay, despite the tugging at my heartstrings, beat Ghana, though they needed penalty kicks to do it, and I am still at loss as to how Gian missed the net in the dying seconds of the game...

Having said that, Uruguay suffered a critical loss during the run of the match. In order to block a sure goal, Suarez was forced to handle the ball, earning Ghana the spot kick that Gian missed. However, in doing so, Suarez's red card means that he'll miss Uruguay's semi-final date with Holland. Despite all of their relatively unexpected success, Uruguay has yet to demonstrate anything that will give the Netherlands any degree of difficulty. The Dutch midfield ought to swallow up Diego Forlan, while keeping Robben free reign to terrorize the Uruguayan flanks. It might be tight, but it will never be close. Netherlands.

The Germany-Spanish match, on the otherhand, could go any number of ways but in all likelihood, Germany will will prevail. Puyol, the chief Spanish defender, demonstrated that his speed will be an exploitable issue for the Germans. Further, it remains to be seen whether Spain has anyone capable of shutting down Schwienstieger. Fernando Torres has been invisible so far, and the match-up between Villa and Mertesacker has all the hallmarks of a David v. Goliath showdown. Critically then, Germany gets the edge on things even before we factor in the double monkey paws: no defending European Champion has ever won the World Cup, and no team has ever won the World Cup after losing their opening match. The only omen that Spain has in their favour is that Rafael Nadal won Wimbledon this morning, just as he did prior to Spain's winning of the European Championship. Germany.

World Cup 2010 Quarter-Final Predictions

Calamity! Disaster! I admit, only getting half the teams through the round is no great shake, especially when I think that simply betting the favourite (as per FIFA ranking) would have got you 100%.

I admit to being in a bit of a whirl as to who to pick going going forward. In the past round, I might have been blinded to much by personal preferences. For example, my heart really wanted Ghana to go forward so much that I thought it made me unable to evaluate them fairly, causing me to pick the US instead. With Uruguay, things went the other way. My dislike of Uruguayan officials, stemming from the South Korea v. Italy match fiasco of 2002, carried over (unfairly) to the team. Note to England fans: how you liking Uruguayan officials after that non-call goal?

So, to make picks this round, I've reviewed some of my earlier rationale:

Uruguay v. Ghana - my heart is all Ghana in this one, but Ghana doesn't seem to have anyone to match Forlan and Suarez, who are playing like stone killers. Still, Ghana has shown the capacity to rise to the occasion - they'll need to cut off the supply to Forlan and Suarez by really pressing in the midfield. Ghana's quick down the flanks and maybe they could be the first to test Uruguay's still unproven defense. Uruguay (sorry Ghana, but I'm still rooting for you)

Argentina v. Germany - It would be very odd indeed for this to be a low scoring game. The Germans looked extremely composed in the game against England, laying to rest my doubts that perhaps the nerves of the younger team members might play a role. Still, Germany has proven that they can, at times at least, be confused. Argentina will have to hope that their high pressure attack will cause such a momentary break. Argentina.

Netherlands v. Brazil - I don't think the Dutch have ever beaten Brazil. I don't think the Netherlands is the better team. In fact, I don't even think the Dutch have a player currently firing at the level of Brazil's Luis Fabiano. Fabiano is on pace to be a contender for the Golden Boot. What the Dutch have however, is Arjen Robben, easily the tournament's most intense player. If the game is still scoreless at half-time I wouldn't be surprised to hear Robben threatening and intimidating the rest of the team and then coming out in the second half and carrying them on his shoulders to victory. If Brazil can score early, I think it's over. Netherlands.

Spain v. Paraguay. Frankly, while I reluctantly predicted Paraguay would make it into the second round (even suggesting they might come in first), their play against Japan was as dismal as I anticipated and they were just a crossbar away from losing in regulation time, let alone penalty kicks. On the otherhand, no team celebrated beating their second-round opponent as much as Spain did against Portugal, because Spain is battling not just all the other teams in the tournament, but also the monkey paw of being defending European Champions. Portugal was the toughest competition they were going to face in their end of the bracket. Having already lost once to a much lower-ranked opponent, I can't believe they'd do it again. Spain.