Lately I have been thinking about the role that demographics might have played in the late twentieth century.
I am familiar with the old Leninist-derived argument that suggested that late nineteenth century imperialism stemmed from a need to acquire cheap resources to fuel the growing manufacturing processes in the home countries. Colonies were viewed as a source of raw materials and later as possible markets for the consumption of those finished goods. This is the classic understanding that I was brought up with it, but at some point during my Daily Wenzel days I came across another idea, one that not necessarily contradicted, but certainly complemented this understanding.
I do not remember where the idea came from, but it has stuck with me for awhile. I don't remember what exactly we were talking about, it might have been a result of having watched Heath Ledger's Four Feathers. I always assumed it to have been based on someone else's historical work, though I have searched in vain to find it. At any rate, I do not assume the original thought to be mine.
This new argument for imperialism rested on the expansion of the middle-classes, specifically those in Britain, and suggested that part of the need for imperialism rested on the closure of traditional entry level positions for the clerical and professional classes in the home countries. I don't recall seeing any evidence to support this, but I imagine that a scan of population and tax rolls can be used to support demographic ideas, while tax records for businesses can also be used to determine whether the per capita business start-ups kept pace with the number of clerical and professional graduates being produced. The lack of employment opportunities at home created a pool of labour willing to travel abroad to gain the necessary job experience before returning to middle management positions in Britain. Since the army and navy were also viewed as viable employment positions for young men, this period of time also saw the rapid grow of the lower ranks.
As I said, I liked this idea but it wasn't until recently that I began to think about it in turns of the twentieth century. Since the 2008 Presidential Campaign my consideration of the role that demographics can play has increased. The other day I thought about this model in terms of the rise of multinational corporations. The baby boom presents us with a similar demographic increase as the Britain experienced during the late nineteenth century. Increased post-secondary education, as a combined result of the G.I. Bill and the perceived need for families to send children to post-secondary institutions, also created a similar surplus of highly trained clerical and professional pool. The decline of European economic activity abroad created the opportunity for American corporations to expand their field offices with these new hires.
This model of interpretation also neatly explains the turn towards locally owned subcontractors that many multinationals began to favour during the late-1990s. As the last vestiges of the so-called Greatest Generation began to return, the numerically inferior Generation X was perhaps sufficient to replace them. This retrenchment continued through the first decade of the new millenium, the one that saw the first of the baby boomers begin to retire while the millenials had yet to enter the professional and clerical workforce. It will be interesting to see how the shift in industrial activity impacts the millenials. Numerically, they are much larger than Generation X and so one would expect them to experience similar pressure to work abroad, or at least colonize new fields, such as those opened up by recent IT Developments.
