World Cup 2010 Finals Predictions

As much of the world gears up for the World Cup Final on Sunday, there appears to be no shortage of superstitions coming to the fore: apparently there is an octopus in Germany that is on quite a role and has predicted that Spain will win. A local TV station over here supposedly had a parakeet that picked the Netherlands, so who can say? But it does appear that live animals making sports wagers does seem to be a 21st century sporting superstition that has a bit of legs. Most Canadians would point to TSN's Maggie the Macaque's astonishing NHL Playoff predictions back in 2003.

Of course, here at What Sister Ray Said we've been musing about the death of 20th Century Superstitions, and so hold out the Spain-Netherlands Final as their last chance to hold any currency for this new century. Specifically, we are rooting for The Monkey Paw, a superstition based on a 1902 short story in which a stuffed monkey paw is said to grant wishes, but always with awful results. It's been the subject of close to a dozen movie adaptations, as well as numerous spoofs, most famously (to my generation) on The Simpsons. You can read an excerpt from the original short story at the bottom of this post.

So, in our case, the Monkey Paw refers to the fact that no defending European Champion has ever won the World Cup. Spain won the European Championships in 2008 and so, theoretically, are doomed to lose in this tournament -except of course, that they keep winning and look fantastic doing it. Further, no team has lost their opening game and gone on to win the World Cup, so in fact Spain has two 20th century superstitions against them.

What Will Happen

Spain will come out and play the same brand of possession football that has given them so much success. If the Dutch try to play their typical counter-attacking style, as the Germans tried to do, they will lose. As a fan of numerous counter-attacking Italian teams, the premise of the counter-attack is that the offensive team will eventually lose patience, commit a mistake that will allow you to gain possession, and then you run down the field and score. It presupposes that you are more talented than your opponent. At best, Holland and Spain are a dead draw, with most people easily willing to give Spain the edge.

If the Dutch are to win, and I want them too (because I want to believe in the Monkey Paw), then the Netherlands need to attack the Spanish in midfield. van Persie and van Bommel are taller than their Spanish counterparts, and I'm hard pressed to think of someone on the Spanish side as physically challenging as Arjen Robben. The only one who comes close is defender Carles Puyol, who the Dutch need to attack relentlessly on account of his age and lack of speed. Many commentators also feel that Capdevilla is attackable. Add in the fact that Sergio Ramos is keen to play out of position, and Holland ought to have every reason to take the ball to the Spanish net every chance they get.

Fernando Torres is out of form, and there's a rumour going around that David Villa is hurt or sick. Spain still has plenty of weapons though, especially when their ball handlers Xavi and Iniesta are given time to move players into position. Again, hoping to sponge up Spain's offensive pressure will only result in the Dutch losing. Attacking in midfield is the key. Netherlands ('cuz the Monkey Paw said so)

Tomorrow's Game

The only team that wants to play the Runner's Up Game tomorrow is Uruguay and therefore they'll win. Somehow. The Germans are already talking about the next World Cup and turning down offers for a parade in Berlin. Germany is the better team and ought to take it easily, but I doubt how many German players are going to show.

THE MONKEY'S PAW (1902)

from The lady of the barge (1906, 6th ed.)
London and New York
Harper & Brothers, Publishers

by W.W. Jacobs

---

I.

WITHOUT, the night was cold and wet, but in the small parlour of Laburnam Villa the blinds were drawn and the fire burned brightly. Father and son were at chess, the former, who possessed ideas about the game involving radical changes, putting his king into such sharp and unnecessary perils that it even provoked comment from the white-haired old lady knitting placidly by the fire.

"Hark at the wind," said Mr. White, who, having seen a fatal mistake after it was too late, was amiably desirous of preventing his son from seeing it.

"I'm listening," said the latter, grimly surveying the board as he stretched out his hand. "Check."

"I should hardly think that he'd come to-night," said his father, with his hand poised over the board.

"Mate," replied the son.

"That's the worst of living so far out," bawled Mr. White, with sudden and unlooked-for violence; "of all the beastly, slushy, out-of-the-way places to live in, this is the worst. Pathway's a bog, and the road's a torrent. I don't know what people are thinking about. I suppose because only two houses on the road are let, they think it doesn't matter."

"Never mind, dear," said his wife soothingly; "perhaps you'll win the next one."

Mr. White looked up sharply, just in time to intercept a knowing glance between mother and son. The words died away on his lips, and he hid a guilty grin in his thin grey beard.

"There he is," said Herbert White, as the gate banged to loudly and heavy footsteps came toward the door.

The old man rose with hospitable haste, and opening the door, was heard condoling with the new arrival. The new arrival also condoled with himself, so that Mrs. White said, "Tut, tut!" and coughed gently as her husband entered the room, followed by a tall burly man, beady of eye and rubicund of visage.

"Sergeant-Major Morris," he said, introducing him.

The sergeant-major shook hands, and taking the proffered seat by the fire, watched contentedly while his host got out whisky and tumblers and stood a small copper kettle on the fire.

At the third glass his eyes got brighter, and he began to talk, the little family circle regarding with eager interest this visitor from distant parts, as he squared his broad shoulders in the chair and spoke of strange scenes and doughty deeds; of wars and plagues and strange peoples.

"Twenty-one years of it," said Mr. White, nodding at his wife and son. "When he went away he was a slip of a youth in the warehouse. Now look at him."

"He don't look to have taken much harm," said Mrs. White, politely.

"I'd like to go to India myself," said the old man, "just to look round a bit, you know."

"Better where you are," said the sergeant-major, shaking his head. He put down the empty glass, and sighing softly, shook it again.

"I should like to see those old temples and fakirs and jugglers," said the old man. "What was that you started telling me the other day about a monkey's paw or something, Morris?"

"Nothing," said the soldier hastily. "Leastways, nothing worth hearing."

"Monkey's paw?" said Mrs. White curiously.

"Well, it's just a bit of what you might call magic, perhaps," said the sergeant-major off-handedly.

His three listeners leaned forward eagerly. The visitor absentmindedly put his empty glass to his lips and then set it down again. His host filled it for him.

"To look at," said the sergeant-major, fumbling in his pocket, "it's just an ordinary little paw, dried to a mummy."

He took something out of his pocket and proffered it. Mrs. White drew back with a grimace, but her son, taking it, examined it curiously.

"And what is there special about it?" inquired Mr. White, as he took it from his son and, having examined it, placed it upon the table.

"It had a spell put on it by an old fakir," said the sergeant-major, "a very holy man. He wanted to show that fate ruled people's lives, and that those who interfered with it did so to their sorrow. He put a spell on it so that three separate men could each have three wishes from it."

Click here to read the rest of the story, courtesy of Mount Royal University

World Cup 2010 Semi-Final Predictions

It is on. I think the week following Canada Day in World Cup years is among one of my favourite years going. Between Wimbledon, the Tour de France, and the knock-out rounds of the World Cup, it's possible to lose oneself totally in sports. My predictions for the quarter-finals came in at 75%, with only Argentina's shocking, nay soul-crushing, defeat at the hands of Germany, coming in as an upset. Uruguay, despite the tugging at my heartstrings, beat Ghana, though they needed penalty kicks to do it, and I am still at loss as to how Gian missed the net in the dying seconds of the game...

Having said that, Uruguay suffered a critical loss during the run of the match. In order to block a sure goal, Suarez was forced to handle the ball, earning Ghana the spot kick that Gian missed. However, in doing so, Suarez's red card means that he'll miss Uruguay's semi-final date with Holland. Despite all of their relatively unexpected success, Uruguay has yet to demonstrate anything that will give the Netherlands any degree of difficulty. The Dutch midfield ought to swallow up Diego Forlan, while keeping Robben free reign to terrorize the Uruguayan flanks. It might be tight, but it will never be close. Netherlands.

The Germany-Spanish match, on the otherhand, could go any number of ways but in all likelihood, Germany will will prevail. Puyol, the chief Spanish defender, demonstrated that his speed will be an exploitable issue for the Germans. Further, it remains to be seen whether Spain has anyone capable of shutting down Schwienstieger. Fernando Torres has been invisible so far, and the match-up between Villa and Mertesacker has all the hallmarks of a David v. Goliath showdown. Critically then, Germany gets the edge on things even before we factor in the double monkey paws: no defending European Champion has ever won the World Cup, and no team has ever won the World Cup after losing their opening match. The only omen that Spain has in their favour is that Rafael Nadal won Wimbledon this morning, just as he did prior to Spain's winning of the European Championship. Germany.

World Cup 2010 Quarter-Final Predictions

Calamity! Disaster! I admit, only getting half the teams through the round is no great shake, especially when I think that simply betting the favourite (as per FIFA ranking) would have got you 100%.

I admit to being in a bit of a whirl as to who to pick going going forward. In the past round, I might have been blinded to much by personal preferences. For example, my heart really wanted Ghana to go forward so much that I thought it made me unable to evaluate them fairly, causing me to pick the US instead. With Uruguay, things went the other way. My dislike of Uruguayan officials, stemming from the South Korea v. Italy match fiasco of 2002, carried over (unfairly) to the team. Note to England fans: how you liking Uruguayan officials after that non-call goal?

So, to make picks this round, I've reviewed some of my earlier rationale:

Uruguay v. Ghana - my heart is all Ghana in this one, but Ghana doesn't seem to have anyone to match Forlan and Suarez, who are playing like stone killers. Still, Ghana has shown the capacity to rise to the occasion - they'll need to cut off the supply to Forlan and Suarez by really pressing in the midfield. Ghana's quick down the flanks and maybe they could be the first to test Uruguay's still unproven defense. Uruguay (sorry Ghana, but I'm still rooting for you)

Argentina v. Germany - It would be very odd indeed for this to be a low scoring game. The Germans looked extremely composed in the game against England, laying to rest my doubts that perhaps the nerves of the younger team members might play a role. Still, Germany has proven that they can, at times at least, be confused. Argentina will have to hope that their high pressure attack will cause such a momentary break. Argentina.

Netherlands v. Brazil - I don't think the Dutch have ever beaten Brazil. I don't think the Netherlands is the better team. In fact, I don't even think the Dutch have a player currently firing at the level of Brazil's Luis Fabiano. Fabiano is on pace to be a contender for the Golden Boot. What the Dutch have however, is Arjen Robben, easily the tournament's most intense player. If the game is still scoreless at half-time I wouldn't be surprised to hear Robben threatening and intimidating the rest of the team and then coming out in the second half and carrying them on his shoulders to victory. If Brazil can score early, I think it's over. Netherlands.

Spain v. Paraguay. Frankly, while I reluctantly predicted Paraguay would make it into the second round (even suggesting they might come in first), their play against Japan was as dismal as I anticipated and they were just a crossbar away from losing in regulation time, let alone penalty kicks. On the otherhand, no team celebrated beating their second-round opponent as much as Spain did against Portugal, because Spain is battling not just all the other teams in the tournament, but also the monkey paw of being defending European Champions. Portugal was the toughest competition they were going to face in their end of the bracket. Having already lost once to a much lower-ranked opponent, I can't believe they'd do it again. Spain.

Onward! Round Two Beckons!

Italian coaches are infamous for calling tournaments like the World Cup and the UEFA Champions League "two tournaments in one." As Carlo Ancelotti once explained, the first round is all about winning points, the second round is about winning games. In Italian minds, the second phase, which starts tomorrow, is the real tournament. Perhaps this why the Azzurri are sitting at home right now...

Again, for those keeping score at home, my own predictions for Round Two have come in at 69% while the FIFA rankings are also running at 69%.

Round Two Match-Ups And Predictions

Uruguay v. South Korea - One of the few cases where I predicted neither of teams. Given that Uruguay had South Africa and France in their pool, it's hard to get an accurate assessment of where they're at, but Diego Forlan is playing extremely well. Still, South Korea is playing a well-disciplined game that Uruguay will have difficulty exploiting. Korea.

USA v. Ghana - I think just about everyone not living in the USA wants to see Ghana advance, if only for an African team to go deep in the tournament. Ghana should give the Americans plenty of trouble, but this could be the chance Team USA has been waiting to show the rest of the world they're taking soccer seriously. USA

Argentina v. Mexico - Diego Maradona fielded four strikers in the match against Greece, and kept the Greeks, already a defense heavy team, bottled up for the better part of an hour. While Mexico is more likely to provide a stronger offensive threat, I don't think their defense is anywhere near the calibre of Greece. Argentina

England v. Germany - It's hard to decide which game will draw more viewers, this one or Spain v. Portugal. On paper, I think Germany has been playing better than England and ought to carry the day, but the psychological pressure of this particular match will be huge and the older, more experienced English players will prevail. England

Netherlands v. Slovakia - Arjen Robben is the kind of player that Italy lacked in their own game against Slovakia and ought to be able to help the Dutch dictate the pace of the game. While the Dutch have proven that they can be rattled and drawn into some technical fouls in the past, they should still prove more than a match for Slovakia. The only real question is whether they remain calm enough to keep enough of their players going forward. Netherlands

Brazil v. Chile - Chile have proven to be surprisingly resilient and stingy, even in their game against Spain. However, I think that match cost Chile too much in terms of yellow and red cards for the team to present much of a threat to a Brazil team that has admittedly only shown flashes of brilliance this World Cup. Regardless, it should still be enough to see Brazil through. Brazil

Paraguay v. Japan - Who knows? The Japanese are playing exciting, aggressive soccer and it would be fantastic to see them through. Other teams have admitted to being bewildered by the Japanese disregard for defense, so maybe it will surprise Paraguay too. Japan

Spain v. Portugal - This is the only match-up I called correctly. I stand by what I said. Portugal.

And yes, we're still on pace for a Brazil v. Argentina final.

World Cup 2010 Predictions, Pt.2

Round Two
France v. Greece (or Nigeria)
Unless France is firing on all cylinders, Nigeria could prove a handful, but Greece is unlikely to have the firepower necessary to pull of the upset. Fifa says: France Argentina v. Uruguay (or South Africa) Unless Argentina coach Diego Maradona allows himself to become a sideshow, Argentina should roll through this match regardless of who they play from Group A. Fifa says: Argentina England v. Ghana
A fast-paced Ghana, playing with plenty of confidence, could give England plenty of trouble - a sturdy Australia clogging up the middle and waiting for the counter-attack, not so much. Should Serbia hold, England should still prevail. Fifa says: England.

Netherlands v. Paraguay
The Dutch.

Italy v. Cameroon
This one makes me nervous, because I can't be certain that Italy can hold off Samuel Eto'o long enough to score two goals or hold onto their win. Eto'o plays in Italy and so should have plenty of experience unlocking an Italian defense. My heart says Italy, my brain says Cameroon. Fifa says: Italy

Germany v. USA
The US upset Spain last summer in a game that I'm sure the Germans will have watched numerous times and would do well not to underestimate the Americans. It could be tough, but should advance.

Spain v. Portugal (or Cote d'Ivoire)
This will probably be the most anticipated match of the round, regardless of who Spain have to play, heck it might even be Brazil. All sides are capable of playing attractive flowing football with an attacking focus (except maybe North Korea, who I won't pretend to understand anything about). Spain is easily the best team in Europe, but no team in history as ever one the European Championship and gone on to win the World Cup. Sorry Spain, but your journey has to end somewhere, and Portugal is as good a place as any. Fifa says: Spain, but so does Sports Illustrated, and that's the kiss of death. If Spain play Cote d'Ivoire then they should manage to win.

Brazil v. Switzerland (I almost forgot)
um, Brazil.

Round Three

France v. England
Seriously! It'd be epic! But who'd win? Who cares! For no other reason than Sports Illustrated is picking England to go to the final, I'll pick France, although, a lot of things have to be going right for France to have made it this far, and that might just give them the edge. Fifa says: England.

Netherlands v. Brazil
Brazil has been criticized a lot lately for it's more defensive tactics and the Dutch will really put it to the test. History suggests that it's easier to win the World Cup once you've already won it than it is to win it for the first time, so I'll say Brazil.

Argentina v. Germany
This is where we'll find out just how good is the rest of the Argentinian team. If Diego Maradona has gotten his team to place where they can truly play behind Lionel Messi, then they should be able to handle the Germans. Look for Germany to out-coach Argentina and for the match to be highly technical. I believe in Messi, so I believe in Argentina. Fifa says: Germany.

Italy (or Cameroon) v. Portugal (or Spain)
Again, history suggests that it is easier to win back-to-back World Cups than it is to win a first one. If Italy advances past Cameroon, then they should be able to take Portugal as well. Portugal is capable of fielding a more complete team than Cameroon, though the Eto'o v. Ronaldo match up is tantalizing. As is the slim possibility of a third round all Africa match guaranteeing an African team in the semi-final should Cote d'Ivoire somehow beat Spain. However, the Spanish defense is no stranger to Samuel Eto'o and should be able to neutralize him. Fifa says: Portugal (or Spain)

Semi-Finals

France v. Brazil
This would be a 1998 Finals rematch, as well as the 2006 semi-finals rematch. France has won both of them and you have to think their luck will run out. Let's say Brazil. Fifa says: Brazil

Italy v. Argentina
Both of these teams have six World Cups between them. Argentina will attack. Italy will defend. In my dreams Italy scores first and then miraculously scores again as if Jose Mourinho was behind the bench. Most likely, Argentina will score first and Italy will be pressed to try and score on their quick counter-attack, ensuring a highly exciting game. It also promises to be highly entertaining should Cameroon, Portugal, or Spain make it past Italy, however, in that case Argentina has "statistics" (and Lionel Messi) on their side.

Final
Brazil v. Argentina (or Cameroon, Portugal, or Spain)
Please let anyone other than Brazil win this. Maybe even Italy? It could happen, but I'm going with Argentina and will suggest that the only Brazil is going to win is if they have to play Spain (who we've already established have been marked by the Kiss of Death, twice).

*For the record, I am comfortable writing that Italy will not be in the finals, since I find it unreasonable to believe that they would do it twice in a row (even though there's that bit about it being easier to win back-to-back cups, it's just for show really - but that's not to say I wouldn't be horribly miserable if they do lose).

World Cup 2010 Predictions

Wherein I make my bold predictions as to how this year's World Cup of Soccer competition will unfold. A word of caution, I am genetically programmed to believe that Italy will win it all. This does have a tendency to could my judgement, so I have provided not one, but three predictions for the World Cup: the first premised on Italy winning everything, the second relying on FIFA rankings, and the third based on a modicum of analysis, statistical trends, and one or two pluckings of things out of random personal orifices.

First Round

Group A (South Africa, France, Mexico, Uruguay)

Fifa Says: France and Uruguay.

I say: France and Mexico.

Outlier: No host nation has ever failed to advance, so look for South Africa to somehow gain a surprise win over France or Mexico, a draw against the other and Uruguay as well. Yes, France stumbled into the World Cup on a handball goal, but hopefully that has shamed them into playing better. Mexico is the real question mark here as their FIFA Ranking benefits from their legendary home record in Azteca Stadium. That record will might not work for them in South Africa, so I would not be surprised to see them upended by the hosts or Uruguay.

Group B (Argentina, Nigeria, Greece, Korea)

Fifa Says: Argentina, Greece

I Say: Argentina, Nigeria

Outliers: Pele once claimed that an African team would claim the World Cup before the end of the last century. Now overdue, few World Cups have seen so many African teams playing as strongly internationally as 2010. Almost every team from Africa has a good chance of making it into the second round. For the record, Argentina is perhaps my most favoured team not named Italy to win it all.

Group C (England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia)

Fifa Says: England, USA

I Say: England, USA

Outliers: Less than 130 ranking points separate the bottom three teams in this club, one of the narrowest margins. England is 8, USA 14, Slovenia 25, and Algeria 30. England ought to go through in some capacity, but any stutter by one of the others could see them going home early. Again, theoretically, Algeria has as good a chance as anyone else if they can keep the scores low and eke out two draws.

Group D (Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana)

Fifa Says: Germany, Serbia

I Say: Germany, Ghana

Outliers: Expect Serbia to gear up for the game against Germany, but it's questionable which team will show up against Australia and Ghana. A surprise loss or draw to Serbia could see Ghana sneaking by.

Group E (Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon)

Fifa Says: Netherlands, Cameroon

I Say: Netherlands, Cameroon

Outliers: None. In the past, African players have been accused of playing for exposure, but under the leadership of Samuel Eto'o, look for that tendency to end. While the Dutch are consistent World Cup performers and my favourite European team not named Italy to win, Cameroon is my favourite African team.

Group F (Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovenia)

Fifa Says: Italy, Paraguay

I Say: Italy, Paraguay

Outliers: None, but I can't guarantee that Italy will finish first overall and I'll admit I had to check twice to make sure that I really saw New Zealand on that list.

Group G (Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire, North Korea, Portugal)

Fifa Says: Brazil, Portugal

I Say: Brazil, Portugal

Outliers: Lots of commentators are hyping North Korea as some kind of wild card here. I think I heard one sports reporter actually reference the "bamboo curtain" a la Blades of Glory. Up until last week I had Cote d'Ivoire slipping past Portgual based on the fact that Didier Drogba and company had performed better and under more pressure than the Ronaldo and his teamates who have a tendency to crack under pressure. However, reports from last week about Drogba breaking his arm have me in real doubts as to his effectiveness (there are claims that his arm was surgically repaired and he might be healthy enough to play their June 15th debut)

Group H (Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile)

Fifa Says: Spain, Chile

I Say: Spain, Switzerland

Outliers: Chile and Switzerland are separated by 22 ranking points, one of the smallest differences of the tournement. Switzerland were surprise over-performers at Euro 2008, they are now joined by the legendary Ottmar Hitzfeld, coach of Champions League winning Dortmund and Bayern Munich teams. His steely guidance has already seen the Swiss start advancing up the rankings.